About

I'm Adam Patrick Weir. I publish equity theses and macro research, and I score all of it in public.

I'm an MSF student at Indiana University's Kelley School of Business, a member of Kelley's Reese Investment Fund, and a CFA Level I candidate. Before Kelley, I earned a First Class Honours degree in Finance from the University of Glasgow. I've completed three internship stints in buy-side equity research, covering UK retail and defense. This site is where I put my own work on the record.

Schedule

A new piece goes up every Monday at 7:00 AM ET, written the night before. The first Monday of each month carries a full thesis; the other weeks carry macro reports, scorecards, and shorter notes. Event-driven scorecards (earnings, rulings) post the same day the facts arrive, outside the schedule.

The method

Each thesis commits to its evidence before the outcomes are known:

• Pre-registered tests. Independent checks against filings, dockets, hiring data, credit markets, and employee signals, with bull and bear predictions written down before I look. Nulls and contradictions get reported, not filtered.
• Dated catalysts. Every thesis names the events that will prove or refute it, and when. I register expectations before each event and grade them after.
• Kill-switches. Exit conditions set at publication. When they fire, the position closes regardless of price, and I post the exit. Facts end positions; price doesn't.

The site's version history is public: I commit each post to a Git repository on the day it publishes, so the timestamps on pre-registered claims can be verified rather than taken on trust.

Contact

The most useful mail I get is pushback, especially from readers closer to the companies than I am. Reach me at adamweir04@icloud.com.

Disclaimer

Nothing on this site is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation. It is research published for discussion and for the record. I may hold positions in the securities I write about, I may trade them at any time without notice, and I disclose my broad stance (long, short, none) in each piece. Figures are believed accurate at publication but are not guaranteed; sources are cited in each note. Do your own work, and consult a licensed adviser before making investment decisions.