Research

Work that isn't tied to a single ticker: macro reports, thematic notes, and working papers. Everything is dated when posted and dated again when revised, so what changed stays on the record.

Macro and thematic

• 12 Oct 2026 The Balance-Sheet Consumer: Spending the Portfolio Michigan sentiment at a record low against near-record card spending: the gap is wealth. Equities are 48.2% of household financial assets, so the 'resilient' consumer is exactly as robust as asset prices. Five signposts with fixed thresholds. Macro
• 06 Oct 2026 Rising Yields, Record Equities: The 2026 Divergence The 10-year at a 24-year high against an index 0.3% from its record. Four flags with fixed definitions; two have fired. Macro

Working papers

• 06 Oct 2026 Does Lease Capitalisation Affect Corporate Bond Credit Spreads? Evidence from IFRS 16 Adoption in Europe 59 European issuers, 2014–2022. Spreads for lease-heavy firms widened after adoption, but gradually: the repricing builds from 2020 to 2022 rather than arriving at announcement or adoption. Paper

Where the market work on this site draws on this research, or the reverse, the pieces cite each other.