Track record
Every idea I publish stays on this page from the day it goes up until it resolves: target hit, thesis changed, or kill-switch fired. I don't edit rows after the fact, and every exit gets a post naming the condition that ended it.
Open
| Idea | Published | Rating | Entry | Target | Bear / Bull | Kill-switches | Status | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FactSet (FDS) | 30 Sep 2026 | Long | $266.18 | $350 (+32%) | $240 / $515 | 0 of 6 triggered | Open | Q4 scorecard |
Entry is the closing price on the publication date, no intraday cherry-picking. Targets are the 12–18 month blended values from the original note; I don't revise one without a dated post explaining why.
Closed
| Idea | Published | Closed | Entry | Exit | Return | Why it ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing closed yet. The first exit, good or bad, lands here with a post. | ||||||
How scoring works
- Pre-registration. I write the tests, catalysts, and exit conditions into the note before the outcomes are known. Scorecards grade those exact tables; I don't add criteria after the fact.
- Kill-switches end positions, not price. Any two falsifiers from a note's exit conditions close the position regardless of where the stock trades, and I post the exit.
- Mistakes stay up. A broken thesis gets a post-mortem, not a quiet deletion. The closed table is the point of this page.