Update · FDS · follows the 30 Sep pitch
FDS Q4 Print: The Pre-Registered Scorecard, Graded
The rules were set in advance: options implied a 9.7% move (~1.8× normal), so the entry plan was half a position before the 30 September print and the second half conditional on an in-line-or-better FY27 margin guide, with no add on a scorecard-negative print. The table below is exactly as registered on 27 September; only the verdict column was filled in after the release.
Result: three positive, five neutral, none negative. The FY27 margin guide came in at a 35.0% midpoint against the street's flat 34.5%. The bar for the second half was met, and I added it per plan.
| Metric (pre-open consensus) | Thesis-positive | Neutral | Thesis-negative | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 revenue (consensus $629.8M; implies FY at guide-high $2,470M) | > $635M | $625–635M | < $620M | Neutral-high |
| Q4 organic ASV add (comp: record $81.8M; guide implies $50-80M; consensus ~$70-75M) | > $75M | $55–75M | < $55M | Positive: ~$82M |
| Q4 EPS - use the right basis: consensus Q4 adjusted $4.35 (FY $17.84); headline GAAP consensus $3.88. Model FY26E $17.92 adj. | > $4.45 | $4.30–4.45 | < $4.30 | Positive: $4.52 |
| Initial FY27 organic ASV guide | > $160M (>6%) | $130–160M | < $120M (<5%) | Neutral |
| Initial FY27 adj. margin guide (street models 34.5% flat; model base 35.0%) | > 35.5% | 34.5–35.5% | < 34.5% w/o ASV accel | Bar met: 35.0% midpoint |
| FY27 adj. EPS guide vs $19.76 cons. | > $19.80 | $19.2–19.8 | < $19.00 | Neutral |
| Buyback: new authorisation ($494M left 31 May; street FY27 = the residual $333M) | Re-up announced or signalled | Silent | Pace guided down | Neutral (silent) |
| Retention / AI-SKU disclosure | ASV ret >95% + AI SKUs quantified | Unchanged | Retention language softens | Positive |
Sources: FactSet Estimate Summary 28 Sep '26; implied move via Benzinga Pro; Q4 FY26 release. In the tally, "bar met" records that the conditional add trigger was satisfied and counts as neutral; neutral-band prints count as neutral even at the high end.
What's Next on the Clock
- ~2 Oct: redacted CUSIP class-certification opinion posts; I read it the same day and size the damages theory. Kill-switch #5 watches this.
- 10 Nov: Investor Day. The ask is the seat-linked vs consumption revenue split. I will register my expectations here before the event.
- Nov: Q3 13Fs show who bought the summer lows.
Kill-switch status after the print: none triggered. ASV 7.0% (threshold <5% ×2 quarters), retention above 95% and still disclosed, Dealmakers +9%, margin guide above floor, Wealth +9%.