Scored in public.
I publish every Monday before the market opens; the first Monday of each month carries a full thesis. Every thesis sets its tests, catalysts, and exit conditions in advance, and when the facts arrive, I grade them here.
The ledger
| Idea | Published | Rating | Entry | Target | Horizon | Status | Next test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FactSet (FDS) | 30 Sep 2026 | Long | $266.18 | $350 | 12–18 mo | Open | Investor Day · 10 Nov 26 |
Entry is the closing price on the publication date. Each row links to its thesis and scorecards, and exits are posted whether a kill-switch fires or the target is hit. Full detail and scoring rules on the track record page.
Latest in each series
Latest thesis
FactSet Research Systems (NYSE: FDS) – Long
30 Sep 2026
Long at $266.18, blended target $350. Fifteen pre-registered tests, six kill-switches.
Next test: Investor Day · 10 Nov
All theses →
Latest macro
The Balance-Sheet Consumer: Spending the Portfolio
12 Oct 2026
Spending has outrun income for seven months, funded by record household wealth.
Next test: Sep income & outlays · 29 Oct
All macro →
Latest update
FDS Q4 Print: The Pre-Registered Scorecard, Graded
05 Oct 2026
Three positive, five neutral, none negative. Second half added per plan.
Re: FDS thesis · graded same day
All updates →
Latest paper
Does Lease Capitalisation Affect Corporate Bond Credit Spreads?
06 Oct 2026
59 European issuers, 2014–2022. The repricing is real but gradual, building 2020–22.
Working paper · evidence from IFRS 16
All papers →
All writing
- 12 Oct 2026 The Balance-Sheet Consumer: Spending the Portfolio Macro · Sentiment at a record low with spending near its strongest: the consumer is spending the portfolio, and the sensitivity to asset prices is at a record. Five signposts with fixed thresholds. Macro
- 06 Oct 2026 Rising Yields, Record Equities: The 2026 Divergence Macro · Four flags with fixed definitions: two fired, two not. Macro
- 06 Oct 2026 Does Lease Capitalisation Affect Corporate Bond Credit Spreads? Evidence from IFRS 16 Adoption in Europe Working paper · 59 European issuers, 2014–2022. The repricing is real but gradual: it builds from 2020 to 2022, not at announcement or adoption. Paper
- 05 Oct 2026 FDS Q4 Print: The Pre-Registered Scorecard, Graded Update · Three positive, five neutral, none negative. Second half added per plan. Update
- 30 Sep 2026 FactSet Research Systems (NYSE: FDS) – Long Full thesis · Long at $266.18, blended target $350. Fifteen pre-registered tests, six kill-switches. Thesis